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America’s Plastic Surgery Crisis: What 2022-2037 Projections Reveal About Workforce Vulnerabilities
Victor Almeida, MD
1,
John Yuxuan Ha, BS, BA1, Thomas Penney, MPH
2, Manoela Dantas, MD
1, Berk Ozmen, MD
1, Risal Djohan, MD
1, Graham Schwarz, MD
1, Eliana Duraes, MD
1.
1Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA,
2Wright State University, School of Medicine, Dayton, OH, USA.
PURPOSE: Plastic surgery procedure volumes continue to rise, yet the number of practicing surgeons in the US is projected to decline. This study forecasts national supply, demand, and geographic distribution of the plastic surgery workforce through 2037 to identify potential vulnerabilities in access and workforce adequacy.
METHODS: Using the Health Workforce Simulation Model, we estimated annual plastic surgery supply and demand from 2022 to 2037 in full-time equivalents (FTEs). Supply projections incorporated new graduates, retirements, mortality, and licensure trends. Demand was modeled under two scenarios: a status quo model reflecting current utilization, and a reduced-barriers model assuming equal access across demographic groups. Workforce adequacy was defined as the ratio of supply to demand. Scenario testing evaluated early or delayed retirement and ±10% annual changes in residency output.
RESULTS: National supply is projected to decrease from 10,960 to 8,540 FTEs by 2037, while demand increases to 11,600 under the status quo and 16,200 under reduced-barriers conditions. Workforce adequacy falls from 100% to 73%, or 59% in the high-access model. Non-metropolitan regions remain critically underserved, with adequacy below 20% throughout and under 10% by 2037 under reduced barriers. State-level analysis shows worsening disparities, with Arkansas, Indiana, New Mexico, and Maine projected to meet less than one-third of required workforce levels.
CONCLUSION: The US is on course for a shortage of plastic surgeons by 2037, disproportionately affecting rural and underserved regions. Addressing these gaps will require coordinated workforce planning, targeted incentives, and flexible training expansion to ensure equitable access to plastic surgery nationwide.
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